Monday, January 20, 2014

Economic Slowdown on an Evolving Planet

There are as usual several components of economic trends.  One of these is the historical trend, which reflects very much the relative development of technology.  However, most of the motivation for technological development began long ago - not mere hundreds or thousands, but millions of years ago. 

In fact, the evolution toward the Moon probably began with the earliest forms of instinct that responded to the ocean's tides, both Lunar and Solar.   Of course as long as life was in the seas alone, it almost certainly never had any dreams or instincts of traveling to the Moon and Sun.  That would come only after land animals, and then birds and mammals arose.  They fueled what eventually became mankind, the human species, and the human species went through various stages of development until well known discoveries of fire, stone tools, spears, bows and arrows, ornamentation and other artificial form which provide the first  evidence of a distinctly human intelligence.  Eventually, the construction of mud, then clay and sandstone architectural constructions made urban civilization possible.  In its protection, invention and discovery were rapid, and the old attractions of the Moon and Sun were of course among the instincts of the world.  There began contests, organized work, forced labor, conflict and war, all fueled by various differences of opinion having much or little to do with flying to the Moon. 

To make this long story short, mankind invented technologies much larger for fighting over how to get to the Moon (and Sun, Planets, etc) than the actual implements which were eventually used for the successful  flights that took place so recently, and which are ongoing even now with instrumented probes, robotic surveying craft, and manned orbital flights.  Undoubtedly, more will continue in the future-probably at an increasingly moderated rate.

What has changed so much, is the same thing that is causing the economic slowdown-the very success already attained in flight to the Moon, to Mars and the other planets, answered many questions so ancient their origins were lost in time billions of years ago.  All the long-term urgency to reach the Moon and fly to the Sun and planets and stars has evaporated.   Project Apollo no longer exists.  Neither does the scheming that gave rise to suspiciously sinister planned conflicts under the planets.  Very few space projects are now  named after mythical beings, creatures, gods or events.  Instead, space vehicles and instruments are named after their particular, specific purpose and design goals, such as the Galex Galaxy Explorer, the Hubble Space Telescope, Nimbus, the Asteroid Redirect Initiative, Chandra X-Ray Observatory, CloudSat, the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, and many others.  These are often also named after particular, very real, living or recently living researchers in space and astronomy.

Economy, once led by the pandemonium of secular, atheistic, predatory, often carnivorous competition for survival faintly tainted by vague dreams and instinctive curiosity to reach the Moon, has largely ceased its wars and is now being guided by the hard facts of willing and voluntary production (with profit motive perfectly legal) yet inspired and goaded by no religious, spiritual, imaginary or instinctive impetus.

That's why the economic slowdown is big, deep, and, to modernists accustomed to inflated luxurious glamor products, drag and ugly and alarming.  Even where formerly communist societies, at one time guessing the truth that space flight would come to pass yet would be of little direct economic value, and having taken up space flight for the time being, are being notoriously slow and casual about space flight development as a driving factor for sheer economic productivity.

That's why natural food stores, organic gardening, and other patterns of productivity that take Earth's vital, long-term importance into account, are being quietly successful.  That's why some large corporations which have drastically trimmed their sails have become successful in new and more organic, whole ways.  It is time to stop worrying and time to cultivate the quality of long-term habitation on the only planet we are likely to live on for millions of years.  There are no economical solutions to the problem of finding other habitable planets.  The only sane economic activity is adapting economically to living on the only one habitable planet attainable, possibly forever.

Fortunately many new facts are in favor of the domestic future of Planet Earth.  The proper rotation of the Milky Way Galaxy was determined with careful measurements spanning thirty years by NASA, and for that or possibly other reasons, the Sun is now a quieter star, more stable for Earth's future.  Many new artificial satellites are circling the Earth with orbits designed to last millions of years and more.  Weather forecasts now extend out decades in the future.  Most design now intentionally plans on very long working lifetimes for most products.  These and other deliberate, long-term factors create a narrowing and lengthening of the period of time in which one or another sort of prophesy is more or less successful.  In other words, earth sees its future in longer terms now-a new quality of prediction that usually leaves old-timers like this writer baffled at where so much future came from-especially if we've only got one planet to live on. 

Just now, what more could one want?







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